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<header class="entry-header"> <h1 class="entry-title" style="text-align: center;">White Women’s Marriage Rates Dropping Much Faster Than Men’s</h1> <img src="https://media.istockphoto.com/id/1208652540/photo/puzzle-house-is-divided-into-two-equal-parts-by-a-lawyer-in-a-divorce-process-protection-of.jpg?s=612x612&w=0&k=20&c=dMAUIpPngLtiSxMPU0ML63obeatMw-ztRRUrHHCaAGI=" alt="" width="800" /> </header> <div class="entry-content"> Summary:  From 2000 to 2007, the rate of never-married white women that married in the next 5 years fell much faster than that of never-married white men. The most striking example is found in comparing the 30-34 y/o male and female cohorts. In 2000, the female rate was 34.1% that would marry in the next five years and the male rate was 28.7%. By 2007, the female rate had plummeted by more than 1/2 to 16.8% while the male rate had only fallen to 24.6%. What was a 5.4% female “edge” in 2000 became a 7.8% “deficit” by 2007, or a 13.2% relative drop in the female minus male rates. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_30_34_comp2women.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1129" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_30_34_comp2women.png" alt="NMWM_30_34_comp2women" width="573" height="207" /></a> In 2000, the 5-year marriage rates were higher for women than men across the whole 20-year span of 20-39 y/o.  But by 2007, the 30-39 y/o men had much higher marriage rates than the similarly aged women and the 25-29 y/o men’s rate had reached parity with the women’s. And the 20-24 y/o men’s rate had nearly cut the gap in 1/2.   Also, of interest are the increasing percentages of never-married white men, similar behavior to that of the rising percentages for women. And in keeping an eye on any changes, is the slight dip in the latest 25-29 y/o male percentage an anomaly or is it a sign of a reversal in the generally-rising marriage-less trend? <h2>Never Married White Men</h2> I decided to produce the same plot for men. I used his spreadsheet and simply plotted the data for men. Note:  To avoid bloated phrases, this post will mostly use the words ‘men’ and ‘women’ from here on out but it should be remembered that they’re white and never-married.  I’m only focusing on whites because that is what data was available in the compilation by Dalrock. Here is Dalrock’s plot for women, followed by my plot for men: <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/dalrock_never_married.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-552" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/08/dalrock_never_married.jpg" alt="dalrock_never_married" width="881" height="687" /></a> <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_percentage.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1103" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_percentage.jpg" alt="NMWM_percentage" width="696" height="451" /></a> Broadly speaking, they both follow the same rising trend of delaying marriage.  It’s also easily seen that women marry earlier. The slight dip in the 25-29 y/o men’s level in 2012 is interesting and bares keeping note of to see if that is the end of the rising levels of not marrying for the 25-29 y/o male cohort or whether it was just an anomaly. It’s also interesting how the 45-54 y/o men’s level jumped up between 2002-2005 and has plateaued since. Older MGTOW? Are they choosing not to marry or are they unable? Probably some of both. 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For example, in the plot above, in 2000, 50.7% of the 25-29 y/o male cohort had never married.  5 years later, in 2005, this cohort had completely moved into the 30-34 y/o cohort, with a level of 28.4%.  This means that 44% of the cohort married within those 5 years, ignoring the “error bars” on these numbers. Also, I take a 3-year average to smooth things out since I want to see the broad trends. So the marriage rates in the next figure are 3-year averages centered at the given year, except for the last year available, 2007, where I just plot that year.  Since the 2013 data isn’t out yet, the 2012 data is the last we have and is used to calculate the 5-yr marriage rate for the men in 2007. Here are the marriage rates (to get married in the next five years) for never-married white men by age cohort and year. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_marry_5yr.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1102" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_marry_5yr.jpg" alt="NMWM_marry_5yr" width="630" height="430" /></a> I find it interesting that the 30-34 y/o rate went up a bit before declining.  A similar, though more noisy, pattern for the smaller sample of 35-39 y/o never-married men. Was that one last surge of marriage idealism before the Great Recession started to affect rates? Is the decline after 2005 (remember, that means how many married by 5 years later, so 2010 or later are the end points) due to the rising awareness amongst men about the unfairness of divorce laws and the unfitness for marriage that too many women display? The rise of the manosphere? Or are women just choosing not to marry as much and so the willing beta is left alone? By comparing the men’s rates with the women’s we might get some insight. <h2>Women’s Marriage Rates Falling Much Faster Than Men’s</h2> Where it gets really interesting is to compare each of these 4 male cohort’s rates with those for the same age of women. Look at how the 30-34 and 35-39 y/o women’s rates started out higher than the men’s in 2000 but then crossed over and fell much more rapidly. In 2000, the 30-34 y/o women’s rate was about 5% higher but, by 2007, it was about 8% lower. A change in the gap of about 13%. And for the 35-39 y/o cohorts, in 2000, the rates were about the same.  The men’s stayed roughly the same while the women’s fell quite a bit. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_30_39_comp2women.png"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1101" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_30_39_comp2women.png" alt="NMWM_30_39_comp2women" width="574" height="417" /></a> Note: I think the 0.9% for women in 2007 is an outlier due to small sample size so I wouldn’t infer that to be the true rate.  It’s likely somewhere more in the 5-10% range and it will be interesting to see what it is when the 2013 data is released so we can get the 2008 5-yr marriage rate. The next plot is fascinating too.  The 20-24 y/o gap in 5-year marriage rates narrowed from about 10% in 2000 to 6% in 2007.  And for the 25-29 y/o cohorts, the roughly 5% gap in 2000-2002 largely disappeared by 2007. <a href="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_20_29_comp2women.jpg"><img class="alignnone size-full wp-image-1100" src="https://web.archive.org/web/20140319123424im_/http://www.justfourguys.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/10/NMWM_20_29_comp2women.jpg" alt="NMWM_20_29_comp2women" width="574" height="416" /></a> <h2>What’s Going On?</h2> Clearly, the never-married white women’s marriage rates are falling faster than men’s, with the 30-34 y/o plot being the most striking. Marriage is a function of two variables:  desire to marry and ability to marry. It’s difficult to disentangle these two but we do know that women are at their peak attractiveness more from 20-29 than from 30-39. The fact that the 20-29 y/o female marriage rates are falling is likely due more to a lack of desire on the part of women, since their ability is at its peak. Many of them prefer career and fun over marriage…or <a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2021/12/06/alpha-males-and-the-women-who-love-them/">at least they prefer to follow the feminist mantras that the alpha mares of the herd</a> tell them. Once women hit the 30-39 y/o range, they are somewhat less attractive (with some much less attractive and a few holding the line) and thus have less ability to marry. Some will never desire to marry but, at 30-39, a lot of the fun-in-their-20′s and the feminist power-career women are entering the age when it is now time to marry, so for most of these, the desire is greater than in their 20′s. It is likely that their ability to get married is diminished due to<a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2019/10/04/relationship-madness-negative-expectations/"> lessened looks and sky-high expectations</a>. Why Does the Women’s Rate Decline More than the Men’s? I don’t know but here are a few speculative possibilities that came to mind: <ol> <li>People might be marrying closer in age than before, bringing the 20-29 y/o rates more in alignment</li> <li>Never-married white men might be marrying non-white women a bit more (foreign brides?)</li> <li>Never-married white men might be marrying divorced women a bit more (not saying it’s likely, just throwing that out there)</li> </ol> <h2>Conclusion</h2> For whatever reason, be it desire or ability, white men are now able to marry more readily in their 30′s than white women and the gap has vanished for 25-29 y/o’s. It’s clear that women are much more able to marry in their 20′s and should forget about the <a href="https://blog.loveawake.com/2020/01/02/why-we-need-feminism/">feminist nonsense to consciously put off marriage until 30 or 35</a>. </div>